A transcendent would be something like “both cause and effect” or simply the whole system of the universe which is simply not possible for us to have a model of, scientific or otherwise. I agree that the natural universe appears to follow “laws”, but the whole thing emerges from a purely probabilistic realm which is the quantum. So then I suppose if we are going to reference the “whole universe” the entire system must be both deterministic and probabilistic. Only point is; tying an abstract concept such a “free will” to a deterministic state of the whole system just seems like an assumption. Which is fine. Assumptions are fine, just not reliable. I do enjoy your writing :)